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Tag:Alabama
Posted on: November 28, 2010 12:47 am
 

Saturday Thoughts, 11/27

1.    Boise State’s National Title Hopes end in Reno  

As is usual, Boise State jumped out to a large first half lead (24-0) and it appeared that Chris Ault’s Nevada Wolf Pack were nothing more than the Broncos’ next victim.  However, Colin Kaepernick and the Nevada offense had other plans.  They finally broke through and got a TD as the game neared halftime.  The offensive improvement fired up the Wolf Pack defense and it shut down the high-powered Boise offense for the first 25 minutes of the 2nd half. 

The Nevada rushing game really got going after the half.  Kaepernick and RB Vai Taua passed SMU’s Pony Express (Eric Dickerson and Craig James) for most career rushing yards by teammates as they led Nevada’s comeback.  With the game tied at 24, Kellen Moore and the Boise offense were finally able to get a TD, only to have it immediately answered by Nevada.   

In the final 10 seconds, Moore completed a miracle pass that set up kicker Kyle Brotzman with a chip shot FG to win the game.  His wide-right miss sent the game to overtime, where he proceeded to miss a second kick, this time wide-left.  The 34-31 Nevada victory ended Boise’s hopes of playing for the National Championship. 

You have to feel bad for Brotzman who will likely have an unfair share of the blame on his shoulders.  The fact of the matter is that unlike most opponents, Nevada didn’t roll over after Boise jumped out to its lead.  Instead, they punched back, and I’m not sure Boise knew how to respond.  When playing a schedule like Boise’s, you can’t be sure how your team will respond when challenged.  There were times in the second half when Bronco players looked like deer in headlights. 

I’ve heard several begin talking about Boise’s “glass jaw,” I disagree.  To their credit, the Broncos managed to put together two drives that should have been game winners in the final minutes of regulation.  I’m not sure where Boise will end up this bowl season, but they will deserve better. 

The hometown Humanitarian Bowl is the most likely option, but I have another thought.  With the Big Ten likely to be unable to fulfill its commitment to the Motor City Bowl, the folks in Detroit can invite any bowl eligible team to the game.  The Las Vegas Bowl may also be looking for a team to fill the spot the Pac-10 can’t. 

In Detroit, Boise would play likely MAC champion Northern Illinois.  If they chose to play in Vegas, the Broncos would likely face MWC runner-up Utah.  I’m not sure the Broncos would be willing to make either trip, but those games have the potential to be one of the better games of this bowl season (much like the TCU-Boise Poinsettia and Louisville-Boise Liberty Bowls from previous years).  My preference would be for a BSU-NIU Motor City Bowl.  That way, I could drive up from Cleveland for the game.  


2.    Auburn Survives Toughest Test of Season in Tuscaloosa  

Every time the Auburn Tigers appear to be finished, Cam Newton pulls another rabbit out of his hat.  As a four-point favorite, the Alabama Crimson Tide jumped out to a 24-0 first half lead (sound familiar???) and appeared to be well on its way to ending Auburn’s miracle season.  A field goal late in the second quarter would begin a run Tiger that would bring the Alabama lead to under a touchdown at 27-21. 

Newton would engineer two key drives in the fourth quarter.  The first gave Auburn its first lead of the game, 28-27.  The second drive drained the final seconds off the clock as the crowd at Bryant-Denney sat in stunned silence. 

Auburn still has another big challenge ahead of it.  The same South Carolina Gamecocks that nearly won on the Plains back in September.  At this point, I see no reason to pick against Auburn again this season.  The Tigers keep finding ways to win.  Even when they don’t show up (Kentuky, Clemson), seem overmatched (Alabama), or out schemed (Arkansas, LSU) Auburn keeps winning.  Kudos to Gene Chizik.   

Lovers of defensive football should probably not watch the potential Auburn-Oregon National Championship Game.  I’m not sure what the record is for most points in a BCS Title Game, but I have a hunch that the Tigers and Ducks would break it.  


3.    Oregon and TCU Roll  

While Boise lost and Auburn struggled, TCU and Oregon met little resistance from their opponents Thanksgiving Weekend.  Mike Stoops and the Arizona Wildcats became the most recent defense to be unable to slow down the Oregon attack Friday night at Autzen Stadium.  At halftime, it seemed like the Wildcats had the answer.  The 19-14 lead wouldn’t hold up as the Ducks outscored their opponents 34-10 in the second half. 

Coming off their bye and a close win over San Diego State, the TCU Horned Frogs had a predictable blowout win over New Mexico in Albuquerque, 66-17.  The Frogs are the first team in the clubhouse at 12-0.  With the notable exception of the San Diego State game, the Frogs have dominated their opponents all season and are certainly worthy of being in the conversation for the BCS Championship.  Should either Auburn or Oregon fall next week, TCU looks like it will be able to hold off one-loss teams Wisconsin and Stanford to secure a spot in the BCS Title Game.  If not, a trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl is one heck of a consolation prize.  A TCU-Wisconsin match up in the Rose Bowl Game might be the best game we see all bowl season.  


4.    Wisconsin Hammers Northwestern, Heading to Pasadena
 

At kickoff, Wisconsin knew that a win on senior day would essentially guarantee it a trip to the Rose Bowl.  A win would put the Badgers in a three-way tie atop the Big Ten.  Per conference rules, the highest ranked BCS team (currently Wisconsin) earns the conference’s automatic BCS bid.    To say they took care of business would be an understatement.  This time, Northwestern was the victim.  The Wildcats were unable to accomplish much against Wisky on their way to a 70-23 defeat. 

To give you an idea of how dominant Wisconsin was this season, over its Big Ten schedule (7-1), the Badgers have averaged over 40 points per game. In its last three games (Indiana, @Michigan, and Northwestern), the Wisconsin Badgers have put up 201 points.  The Badgers were the only team that managed to cross the 30-point threshold against Ohio State’s top-five defense. Today's win was Wisconsin’s third game of 70-plus points and sixth win by 20 or more.  The three-headed monster at running back (Clay, White, and Ball) has been unstoppable. 

I like TCU and think that they have had an outstanding year, but I cannot in good conscience leave them ahead of Wisconsin in my top-ten.  The Badgers have dominated its Big Ten schedule in a way that no team has in recent memory.  I honestly don’t see a team I would call a favorite over Wisconsin.  


5.    Ohio State Extends Winning Streak to Over Michigan  

Did anyone really expect the Wolverines to make a game of this one?  Traveling to one of the most hostile environments in the nation a week after getting smoked by Wisconsin is usually not a recipe for success.  That proved to be the case today as the Buckeyes rolled Michigan 37-7.  In all honesty, the game wasn’t that close.  The seven game winning-streak is the longest Ohio State has ever had over Michigan and is also the longest in the series since UM won nine in a row from 1901 to 1909.  OSU goes for number eight next November in Ann Arbor. 

The win put the Buckeyes in a three-way tie for the Big Ten Championship with Wisconsin and Michigan State.  This marks the sixth consecutive year in which Ohio State won or shared the conference crown, tying its own record from the 1970s.    With Wisconsin heading to Pasadena, a Sugar Bowl match up with either South Carolina or Arkansas seems to be OSU’s most likely destination.  If not the Sugar Bowl, a game against Virginia Tech or Florida State in the Orange Bowl is almost guaranteed.  Ohio State fans travel too well to justify leaving an 11-1 Buckeye team out of a BCS bowl game…sorry OSU haters. 

Today’s loss moves Rich Rodriguez’s record to 0-12 against teams with a winning record in conference play.  I’ve been saying it all season: until Michigan can improve its defense, it has no chance of competing for a Big Ten Title.  Calls for change continue to get louder from Michigan fans, but the UM athletic director has said no decision will be made until after the Wolverine’s Bowl game.  Some reports are saying that Michigan is already putting out feelers to Jim Harbaugh of Stanford (a UM alumnus).  Time will tell, but one thing is for certain: defensive coordinator Greg Robinson won’t be back.  


6.    Bedlam Lives up to its Name  

Once again, ESPN/ABC gave the Cleveland market a bummer by putting Notre Dame-USC on ABC and two SEC/ACC rivalry games on the ESPN networks, forcing me to watch the night’s only meaningful game on ESPN3.com. 

Now that I’ve said my peace about that, I can get off my soapbox and get on with commentary.  After three quarters, the game was tied at 24.  That was the point that Bedlam earned its name.  Oklahoma and OSU combined for 40 points in the last period.  The Sooners scored on their final five possessions, three FGs and a pair of 75-plus yard TD passes by Landry Jones.  Not to be outdone, OSU widoout Justin Blackmon threw a touchdown to QB Brandon Weeden and Justin Gilbert took an OU kick 90 yards for a score.  A poor Cowboy onside kick attempt sealed the game for Oklahoma. 

With the win, the Sooners forced another three-way tie in the Big XII South.  In the BCS, Oklahoma will likely be ranked highest, followed by Texas A&M, with OSU third.  Unless TAMU can get within one place of OU, the Sooners will be playing for the conference title game instead of a team that beat them.   Texas A&M is going to be punished in the BCS for being the only three-loss team in the tie.  The Aggie loss came at the hands of Arkansas on a neutral field.  The Hogs are a top-ten team and the strongest OOC opponent that any of the Big XII South contenders played this season…by a long shot.  The Big XII is essentially punishing TAMU for scheduling a tough OOC opponent.  Congratulations Big XII for screwing up…again.  


7.    Arkansas Keeps BCS Hopes Alive with Win over LSU  

Ryan Mallet’s 320 yards passing and 3 touchdowns were enough to get the Razorbacks past LSU Saturday afternoon in Little Rock.  The Razorbacks outplayed LSU in all aspects of the game on their way to a convincing 31-23 victory.    In the last two months, Sophomore RB Knile Davis has emerged as one of the SEC’s best ball carriers.  Between Davis and Sophomore QB Tyler Wilson (who has looked good in relief of Ryan Mallet), the Hogs seem to be set offensively for the next couple of seasons.   

An Auburn win over South Carolina next week will likely put Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl against Ohio State while Alabama, LSU, and South Carolina end up in the Cotton, Citrus, and Outback Bowls (not sure who goes where).  Should Carolina shock the world again, the Hogs and Gamecocks will likely switch places. 

I’m not sure what has gotten into the LSU defense the last couple of weeks.  After going the first 10 weeks without giving up more that 29 (against Florida in the Swamp), the Tigers have been torched by Ole Miss and now Arkansas for 36 and 31 points respectively.    I’m going to guess that part of the problem is the ineffectiveness of the LSU offense.  The defense has been spending WAY too much time on the field and is probably running out of gas as we approach the end of the season.  Hopefully for LSU, the month rest will get the D back on track.  If it doesn’t, the bowl season won’t be much fun for the Bayou Bengals. 


8.    Florida State Dominates Florida, Heading to Charlotte Thanks to Maryland’s Help  

Urban Meyer’s undefeated streak over Florida State has ended with the Seminole’s 31-7 victory in Tallahassee.  For the first time in nearly a decade, there is no disputing that Florida State is clearly the best team in its state…by a long shot.  The win over Florida gives Jimbo Fischer a good first season from which to build.  Though he will want to forget the blowout loss in Norman and consecutive losses at NC State and at home to UNC, this has arguably been the most successful season at FSU since the Orange Bowl loss to Oklahoma. 

The only thing that would make this season better would be a trip to Charlotte to play for the conference championship.  The loss a month ago in Raleigh took FSU’s fate out of its own hands.  Instead, the ‘Noles had to rely on the same Maryland team that they beat last week.  Needless to say, the Seminole faithful had one eye of the Florida game, and the other on the game in College Park, MD.  The Terps came through with a 38-31 victory over NC State at Byrd Stadium.  Florida State and Virginia Tech will meet in next week’s ACC Championship.  The game feature two of the league’s “football powers” for the first time since these same two schools met in 2005’s inaugural game, a 27-22 Seminole victory. 


9.    West Virginia Wins Backyard Brawl, UConn Controls Big East  

In spite of their 6-4 overall record, the Pittsburgh Panthers went into Friday’s Backyard Brawl with West Virginia in the driver’s seat for the Big East BCS bid (likely to the Fiesta Bowl).  That ceased to be the case when WVU manhandled Pitt 35-10 in front of the Panthers’ home crown at Heinz Field.  The Pittsburgh loss combined with Connecticut’s win over Cincinnati Friday creates a three-way tie at the top of the much-maligned Big East.  Due to its wins over both Pitt and WVU, UConn controls its own destiny.  Win next week in Tampa, and the Huskies will be headed to Glendale to play the Big XII champion or the Orange Bowl to play the ACC champ. 

Should UConn fall, WVU goes to the desert with a home win over Rutgers.  Pitt is still alive, but will need help from USF and Rutgers.  For those of you keeping score at home, four-loss UConn controls its own BCS destiny while three-loss WVU and FIVE-LOSS Pitt are still alive.  Meanwhile, one-loss Michigan State appears destined for the Citrus Bowl and one-loss WAC co-champs Boise State and Nevada are looking at trips to the Humanitarian and Fight Hunger Bowls respectively.  There is something seriously wrong with that statement!!!  Hopefully, the new-look MWC will eventually get a BCS-AQ bid and end this nonsense.  


10.    Notre Dame’s Post-Tulsa Rebound Continues In LA  

After losing to Tulsa, many people (myself included) left Notre Dame for dead.  The Irish needed to win two of three against Utah, Army, and USC.  After a bye, ND responded by blowing out Utah and Army to get bowl eligible.  They then took an 18-year old QB to the LA Coliseum and won a 20-16 defensive battle, reversing a near decade of dominance by USC. 

I have voiced many very different opinions about Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly.  I still believe that there are some serious character issues given some of his past decisions.  One thing that I will never do is take away from his reputation as an offensive guru.  If he can continue to bring in top-10 recruiting classes, I feel Notre Dame has found their man.  Kelly can build a program. 

The win also makes a big difference in terms of where the Irish will go bowling next month.  A loss would have left them at 6-6 and in the Motor city or Las Vegas Bowls.  With the win, the 7-5 Irish become an attractive option for the Champs Sports Bowl (due to the ND tie-in with the Big East) or the Sun Bowl (due to the lack of eligible Pac-10 teams).  A Sun Bowl against old rival Miami (FL) would be an outstanding game.  Catholics vs. Convicts, take two.


Top Ten (Last Week)
1.    Oregon (1)
2.    Auburn (2)
3.    Wisconsin (5)
4.    TCU (3)
5.    Stanford (6)
6.    Ohio State (7)
7.    Michigan State (10)
8.    Arkansas (NR)
9.    Texas A&M (NR)
10.    Nebraska (NR)
The Next Five: Missouri, LSU, Nevada, Boise State, Oklahoma

Posted on: November 7, 2010 10:57 am
 

Saturday Thoughts, 11/6: Blowout Saturday

1.    TCU Thumps Utah, Best Win by a Non-AQ to Date 

I honestly thought that Utah would come out and give TCU a game Saturday afternoon.  It had been over two years since a team came to Salt Lake City and walked away with a win.  The Utes were a top five team that seemed to have proven themselves while climbing the rankings all year.  TCU proved that it is on a completely different level than Utah (and even Boise) by rolling Utah 47-7. 

Remember that it was a blowout win, on the road, against a top five team.  There are no wins on Boise State’s schedule that can even come close to this.  TCU already had a lead in the computers; this win will only increase their lead over the Broncos.  Now that Alabama has lost a second game, I will be interested in seeing if a one-loss Big XII, Big Ten, Pac-10, or SEC team will jump ahead of an undefeated TCU should Auburn or Oregon fall.  

 

2.    There Will be a New National Champion  

Les Miles and the LSU Tigers ended Alabama’s hopes of a national championship Saturday in one of the few big games of this weekend that didn’t end in a blowout.  As has become expected over the last few years (and weeks for that matter), LSU’s hopes relied on a stingy defense and some miracle payoffs on big Les Miles gambles.  The LSU win in Death Valley was an oddity in this series that has been dominated by the visiting team in recent years. 

Heading in to this weekend’s action, the general consensus was that if Alabama were to win out, they would have an SOS good enough to push them past TCU and Boise State.  It will be interesting to see which team becomes the new favorite of the anti-Boise/TCU crowd now that its favorite has fallen.  

 

3.    Stanford Runs it up on Arizona  

If there were any doubt as to the Pac-10’s second-best team, Stanford put that debate to bed with its win Saturday on national TV.  Andrew Luck padded his Heisman resume with nearly 300 yards through the air and two TDs.  Stanford's RB by committee put up over 200 yards rushing for the Cardinal offense.  Stanford’s big win raises the question: can anyone out west play defense? 

Mike Stoops is considered by many to be one of the best up and coming defensive minds in the college game, and Arizona was believed to be the Pac-10’s premiere defense.  It was the Arizona defense that led me to believe that they had the best chance of knocking off Oregon.  After giving up 42 points and 500 yards of offense against Stanford, I’m beginning to balk at that statement.  If the Arizona defense won’t be good enough to stop the Ducks, will any defense?  

 

4.    Joe Paterno wins 400th Game, an Accomplishment that May Never be Repeated  

With Penn State’s 35-21 win over Northwestern in Happy Valley, Joe Paterno became the first head coach in major college football to pick up 400 career victories.  He trails only John Gagliardi (St. John’s Minnesota, DIII) and Eddie Robinson (Grambling State, DI-AA) in total victories.  Fittingly, PSU’s comeback from 21 down matches the best comeback in JoePa’s distinguished coaching career.  Given the current state of college football and its coaching carousel, I highly doubt anyone else will ever come close to 400.  

 

5.    Iowa and Wisconsin Get Wake-Up Calls in Indiana  

Big Ten leaders Iowa and Wisconsin both had more trouble than expected while visiting the Hoosier State.  Wisconsin was manhandled in the first half by the Purdue Boilermakers and went to the locker room lucky to only be trailing 10-6.  Had it not been for several Purdue mistakes and a few questionable calls, the lead could have been much larger.  The Badgers woke up in the second half with Sophomore Montee Ball leading the team on four touchdown drives. 

The Iowa Hawkeyes suffered an even bigger scare in Bloomington.  They went to the half tied at six and spent most of the second half playing catch-up with the Hoosiers.  IU held the lead until late in the 4th-quarter when Ricky Stanzi hit Marvin McNutt on a long pass play to grab the lead.  A dropped fourth down pass in the end zone sealed Indiana’s fate.  Iowa will have to remain focused as it travels to Northwestern next weekend.  In last season’s game, the Hawkeyes were caught looking forward to their game against Ohio State.  

 

6.    Big Win, A&M’s Upset Leaves Oklahoma State in Driver’s Seat  

We entered this weekend with three teams in contention for the Big XII South.  After today’s action, the Oklahoma State Cowboys control their own destiny.  Brandon Weedon (QB), Kendall Hunter (RB), and Justin Blackmon (WR) looked like the Dallas Cowboy’s triplets in the Poke’s 55-28 wood shedding of Baylor.  With games left against TAMU and Oklahoma, it appears that Baylor’s miracle run may be nearing its end.  There is hope for the future though, as Robert Griffin is only a Sophomore. 

Meanwhile, in College Station the Oklahoma Sooners found themselves upset by the Texas A&M Aggies.  For the second time this season, Oklahoma was outplayed in every aspect of the game.  With the win, the Aggies have entered themselves in the conversation for the Big XII South title.  Win out, and with a Sooner victory in Stillwater, the Aggies will end the season in a three-way tie atop their division.  


7.    Nebraska has Stranglehold on Big XII North 

The Iowa State Cyclones gave Nebraska all it could handle Saturday afternoon in Ames.  It took a failed fake-PAT in overtime to finally put the Cyclones away.  Nebraska’s offense played quite well in the absence off all-world freshman QB Taylor Martinez.  The Huskers will have to lose twice to miss the Big XII Championship Game.  It appears they will have no trouble locking up their division, and should be the favorites in Dallas. 

Later that night in Lubbock, Texas Tech helped Nebraska extend their divisional lead with a home win over Missouri.  Mizzou is now a game back and loses the head to head tiebreaker with Nebraska.  More importantly, Tommy Tuberville has a season-defining win for the first year of his tenure in Lubbock.  The homecoming win against a top-12 team should buy the River Boat Gambler some time to install his system, which is a complete departure from what Red Raider fans are used to under Mike Leach.  

 

8.    Does Anybody want to Win the ACC Atlantic?  

Saturday began with three one-loss teams sitting at the top of the ACC Atlantic Division (NC State, Maryland, and Florida State).  The Wolfpack had the inside track given their win over Florida State last Thursday.  When they went down in the final minutes at Clemson, Maryland and FSU were left with a great chance to grab the brass ring.  Both failed…miserably. 

The Terps had a 17-15 halftime lead at Miami and held a 20-18 advantage with three minutes remaining.  However, true freshman QB Stephen Morris led an 82-yard drive in the final minutes to give the ‘Canes a season saving victory.  Meanwhile, upstate in Tallahassee, Florida State fell to North Carolina 37-35 on a last second missed field goal (wide right)…welcome to FSU Jimbo Fisher, you should probably get used to this.  

 

9.    Arkansas Pounds South Carolina  

Every week I swear that I’m not going to rag on the SEC East, but every week I’m given a new reason to do so.  The Arkansas Razorbacks marched in to Columbia and laid a 41-20 beatdown on Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks.  After the embarrassing home loss, USC needs to recover for the division “championship game” next weekend in Gainesville.  Neither team deserves to be ranked, nor do they deserve to play for the SEC title in Atlanta, but those are the rules.  The winner of the game will likely play Auburn regardless of the result in the Iron Bowl.  Considering how crazy this year has been, the east champ will likely win in Atlanta and cost Auburn a chance at the National Championship.  

 

10.    Will Texas get Bowl Eligible?  

At the beginning of the season, one thing seemed pretty clear: the Texas/Oklahoma winner would likely represent the South in the Big XII Championship Game.  Now, we find ourselves with Oklahoma State in the driver’s seat in the division and the Longhorns needing to win two of three to get bowl eligible.  The Horns have lost home games to UCLA, Iowa State, and Baylor already.  Three home games remain against Oklahoma State, Florida Atlantic, and Texas A&M.  A loss next Saturday doesn’t end their hopes, but it leaves them with an even tougher uphill climb in the Lone Star Showdown.  Given UT’s play (especially on defense), I wonder if Will Muschamp’s coach-in-waiting designation may be in jeopardy.  

 

My Top Ten (Last Week)  

1.    Oregon (1)

2.    Auburn (2)

3.    TCU (4)

4.    Boise State (3)

5.    Wisconsin (8)

6.    Stanford (9)

7.    Nebraska (8)

8.    Ohio State (10)

9.    LSU (N/R)

10.    Oklahoma State (N/R) 

The Next Five: Alabama, Utah, Iowa, Michigan State, Arkansas


Posted on: October 11, 2010 4:07 pm
Edited on: October 12, 2010 9:10 am
 

Saturday Thoughts, 10/9

10 thoughts from this weekend’s action, followed by my top 10 list: 

1.  2 weeks ago, Arkansas showed the world the blueprint for beating Alabama.  4 quarters of good quarterback play combined with a solid defensive effort was what was needed to take down the nation’s best team.  Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, the team played well through the first 3 quarters before falling apart in the fourth.  Alabama was proven to be beatable, the question became “what team would be able to pull the upset?”  It ended up being South Carolina with Garcia and the Gamecock defense stepping up after their bye week and a loss @Auburn. 

2. Denard Robinson is a great athlete. By his senior year, Michigan's offense will be one of the nation's best and he'll have a legit case for the Heisman. Right now, he has to improve his throwing accuracy and get through his reads faster. Rich Rodriguez needs to put better offensive pieces around him and completely overhaul the Wolverine D. Until then, teams with solid passing games and competent defenses will have little trouble winning against Michigan.  Iowa, Ohio State, and Wisconsin are all left on the Wolverine schedule and fit the description.  Michigan will lose 2-3 more games this regular season.  On the other side of the coin, Michigan State is for real.  Sparty should be undefeated heading to Iowa City in two weeks.  A win there, and MSU should earn at least a share of the Big Ten title and a trip to Pasadena. 

3.  If Terrelle Pryor plays at the top of his game (ie, Saturday vs. Indiana, vs. Miami (FL), and in the Rose Bowl), Ohio State is nearly unbeatable.  The Buckeye defense is one of the best in the country, and Pryor is the necessary component for OSU’s offensive success.  If Pryor is playing poorly or (God forbid) gets injured, the Buckeye offense goes from solid to below average and the team goes from national title contender to 2-4 loss team out of the BCS.

4.  Speaking of Ohio State, their hard-fought victory in their Big Ten opener against Illinois doesn’t look as bad after the beating the Illini laid on Penn State in Happy Valley.  If Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa are the top Big Ten teams, Illinois fits solidly in the 2nd tier with Michigan, Northwestern and Indiana.  Conversely, Penn State is looking like the 9th best team in the conference and will be fighting with Purdue to try and get bowl eligible.

5.  Auburn needs a statement win.  Right now, the Tigers are the highest ranked SEC team according to the AP.  However, I’m still waiting for them to really put on an impressive performance.  They have struggled in both of their road games against clearly inferior opponents (Mississippi State and Kentucky).  It took overtime to beat Clemson on the Plains. Auburn needed Stephen Garcia and South Carolina to collapse in the 4th quarter to keep their undefeated season alive.  A win next week over Arkansas would go a long way for Auburn.  However, I still think Arkansas should come away with the W. 

6.  Les Miles must have made a deal with the devil.  How else can you explain these 4th quarter comebacks, lucky fake FGs, and wins despite horrible clock management?  LSU has a national championship caliber defense.  If either Jarrett Lee or Jordan Jefferson can figure out how to lead the offense, LSU can make a legit run at the SEC title and a record 3rd BCS championship.  If no, the Tigers are doomed to lose at least twice as their schedule will only get tougher from here on. 

7.  The SEC East isn’t very good.  Other than South Carolina, the top 5 SEC teams all come from the West.  The Gamecocks are in the drivers seat to win their division.  The Old Ball Coach has no excuses for his team failing to reach Atlanta this year, let’s take a look at the competition.  Florida is one of the best programs in the country, but is in the middle of a down year.  This is not a knock on the Gators, this usually happens when you lose an all world QB like Tim Tebow.  Georgia lost their first 3 SEC games and then got beaten by Colorado.  Tennessee has been blown out twice, nearly lost to UAB, and blew a 4th quarter lead despite LSU’s best effort to give them the game.  Kentucky couldn’t seal the deal against Auburn and got blown out in Gainesville.  Vandy is Vandy. 

8.  Oklahoma’s blowout win over Florida State earlier this season is looking even better after the beating FSU laid on Miami (FL).  Right now, the Seminoles are the best team in Florida and are the clear favorites in the ACC.  They are in the weaker division and should be the favorites in all of their remaining games. 

9.  At some point this season, a Pac 10 team will come up with a scheme to shut down the Oregon offense.  If the Ducks don’t put up at least 40 points, they are in danger of losing on any given Saturday.  To say their defense is a weakness would be a massive understatement.  Though they lost this weekend, I think Mike Stoops and his Arizona Wildcats have the best shot at the end of November.  Arizona is the best defensive team in the conference and should still have a chance at getting to the Rose Bowl.  Other teams that have a shot are USC at home in 2 weeks and Oregon State in Corvallis the last week of the season. 

10.  After a convincing win in Ames, the Utah Utes have earned the right to be in the conversation for best non-AQ team with Boise State and TCU.  As an outside observer I find it shocking that Utah isn’t getting any press right now.  Though they are not the sexy pick, Utah has as strong of a BCS busting track record as either of the other teams.  The beaten 2 AQ school already and have a chance to knock off a third when they go to South Bend next month.  A win over TCU in Salt Lake City will change the way both teams are viewed.  The Horned Frogs will be the favorite (possibly a heavy favorite), but given Utah’s recent track record at home (only 5 losses in 5+ seasons under Kyle Whittingham, nonce since September ’07) I certainly wouldn’t bet any money against them.

My Top 10:
1.    Oklahoma
2.    Ohio State
3.    Oregon
4.    Boise State
5.    Nebraska
6.    TCU
7.    Auburn
8.    LSU
9.    Alabama
10.  Utah

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com