Posted on: November 28, 2010 12:47 am
1. Boise State’s National Title Hopes end in Reno
As is usual, Boise State jumped out to a large first half lead (24-0) and it appeared that Chris Ault’s Nevada Wolf Pack were nothing more than the Broncos’ next victim. However, Colin Kaepernick and the Nevada offense had other plans. They finally broke through and got a TD as the game neared halftime. The offensive improvement fired up the Wolf Pack defense and it shut down the high-powered Boise offense for the first 25 minutes of the 2nd half.
The Nevada rushing game really got going after the half. Kaepernick and RB Vai Taua passed SMU’s Pony Express (Eric Dickerson and Craig James) for most career rushing yards by teammates as they led Nevada’s comeback. With the game tied at 24, Kellen Moore and the Boise offense were finally able to get a TD, only to have it immediately answered by Nevada.
In the final 10 seconds, Moore completed a miracle pass that set up kicker Kyle Brotzman with a chip shot FG to win the game. His wide-right miss sent the game to overtime, where he proceeded to miss a second kick, this time wide-left. The 34-31 Nevada victory ended Boise’s hopes of playing for the National Championship.
You have to feel bad for Brotzman who will likely have an unfair share of the blame on his shoulders. The fact of the matter is that unlike most opponents, Nevada didn’t roll over after Boise jumped out to its lead. Instead, they punched back, and I’m not sure Boise knew how to respond. When playing a schedule like Boise’s, you can’t be sure how your team will respond when challenged. There were times in the second half when Bronco players looked like deer in headlights.
I’ve heard several begin talking about Boise’s “glass jaw,” I disagree. To their credit, the Broncos managed to put together two drives that should have been game winners in the final minutes of regulation. I’m not sure where Boise will end up this bowl season, but they will deserve better.
The hometown Humanitarian Bowl is the most likely option, but I have another thought. With the Big Ten likely to be unable to fulfill its commitment to the Motor City Bowl, the folks in Detroit can invite any bowl eligible team to the game. The Las Vegas Bowl may also be looking for a team to fill the spot the Pac-10 can’t.
In Detroit, Boise would play likely MAC champion Northern Illinois. If they chose to play in Vegas, the Broncos would likely face MWC runner-up Utah. I’m not sure the Broncos would be willing to make either trip, but those games have the potential to be one of the better games of this bowl season (much like the TCU-Boise Poinsettia and Louisville-Boise Liberty Bowls from previous years). My preference would be for a BSU-NIU Motor City Bowl. That way, I could drive up from Cleveland for the game.
2. Auburn Survives Toughest Test of Season in Tuscaloosa
Every time the Auburn Tigers appear to be finished, Cam Newton pulls another rabbit out of his hat. As a four-point favorite, the Alabama Crimson Tide jumped out to a 24-0 first half lead (sound familiar???) and appeared to be well on its way to ending Auburn’s miracle season. A field goal late in the second quarter would begin a run Tiger that would bring the Alabama lead to under a touchdown at 27-21.
Newton would engineer two key drives in the fourth quarter. The first gave Auburn its first lead of the game, 28-27. The second drive drained the final seconds off the clock as the crowd at Bryant-Denney sat in stunned silence.
Auburn still has another big challenge ahead of it. The same South Carolina Gamecocks that nearly won on the Plains back in September. At this point, I see no reason to pick against Auburn again this season. The Tigers keep finding ways to win. Even when they don’t show up (Kentuky, Clemson), seem overmatched (Alabama), or out schemed (Arkansas, LSU) Auburn keeps winning. Kudos to Gene Chizik.
Lovers of defensive football should probably not watch the potential Auburn-Oregon National Championship Game. I’m not sure what the record is for most points in a BCS Title Game, but I have a hunch that the Tigers and Ducks would break it.
3. Oregon and TCU Roll
While Boise lost and Auburn struggled, TCU and Oregon met little resistance from their opponents Thanksgiving Weekend. Mike Stoops and the Arizona Wildcats became the most recent defense to be unable to slow down the Oregon attack Friday night at Autzen Stadium. At halftime, it seemed like the Wildcats had the answer. The 19-14 lead wouldn’t hold up as the Ducks outscored their opponents 34-10 in the second half.
Coming off their bye and a close win over San Diego State, the TCU Horned Frogs had a predictable blowout win over New Mexico in Albuquerque, 66-17. The Frogs are the first team in the clubhouse at 12-0. With the notable exception of the San Diego State game, the Frogs have dominated their opponents all season and are certainly worthy of being in the conversation for the BCS Championship. Should either Auburn or Oregon fall next week, TCU looks like it will be able to hold off one-loss teams Wisconsin and Stanford to secure a spot in the BCS Title Game. If not, a trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl is one heck of a consolation prize. A TCU-Wisconsin match up in the Rose Bowl Game might be the best game we see all bowl season.
4. Wisconsin Hammers Northwestern, Heading to Pasadena
At kickoff, Wisconsin knew that a win on senior day would essentially guarantee it a trip to the Rose Bowl. A win would put the Badgers in a three-way tie atop the Big Ten. Per conference rules, the highest ranked BCS team (currently Wisconsin) earns the conference’s automatic BCS bid. To say they took care of business would be an understatement. This time, Northwestern was the victim. The Wildcats were unable to accomplish much against Wisky on their way to a 70-23 defeat.
To give you an idea of how dominant Wisconsin was this season, over its Big Ten schedule (7-1), the Badgers have averaged over 40 points per game. In its last three games (Indiana, @Michigan, and Northwestern), the Wisconsin Badgers have put up 201 points. The Badgers were the only team that managed to cross the 30-point threshold against Ohio State’s top-five defense. Today's win was Wisconsin’s third game of 70-plus points and sixth win by 20 or more. The three-headed monster at running back (Clay, White, and Ball) has been unstoppable.
I like TCU and think that they have had an outstanding year, but I cannot in good conscience leave them ahead of Wisconsin in my top-ten. The Badgers have dominated its Big Ten schedule in a way that no team has in recent memory. I honestly don’t see a team I would call a favorite over Wisconsin.
5. Ohio State Extends Winning Streak to Over Michigan
Did anyone really expect the Wolverines to make a game of this one? Traveling to one of the most hostile environments in the nation a week after getting smoked by Wisconsin is usually not a recipe for success. That proved to be the case today as the Buckeyes rolled Michigan 37-7. In all honesty, the game wasn’t that close. The seven game winning-streak is the longest Ohio State has ever had over Michigan and is also the longest in the series since UM won nine in a row from 1901 to 1909. OSU goes for number eight next November in Ann Arbor.
The win put the Buckeyes in a three-way tie for the Big Ten Championship with Wisconsin and Michigan State. This marks the sixth consecutive year in which Ohio State won or shared the conference crown, tying its own record from the 1970s. With Wisconsin heading to Pasadena, a Sugar Bowl match up with either South Carolina or Arkansas seems to be OSU’s most likely destination. If not the Sugar Bowl, a game against Virginia Tech or Florida State in the Orange Bowl is almost guaranteed. Ohio State fans travel too well to justify leaving an 11-1 Buckeye team out of a BCS bowl game…sorry OSU haters.
Today’s loss moves Rich Rodriguez’s record to 0-12 against teams with a winning record in conference play. I’ve been saying it all season: until Michigan can improve its defense, it has no chance of competing for a Big Ten Title. Calls for change continue to get louder from Michigan fans, but the UM athletic director has said no decision will be made until after the Wolverine’s Bowl game. Some reports are saying that Michigan is already putting out feelers to Jim Harbaugh of Stanford (a UM alumnus). Time will tell, but one thing is for certain: defensive coordinator Greg Robinson won’t be back.
6. Bedlam Lives up to its Name
Once again, ESPN/ABC gave the Cleveland market a bummer by putting Notre Dame-USC on ABC and two SEC/ACC rivalry games on the ESPN networks, forcing me to watch the night’s only meaningful game on ESPN3.com.
Now that I’ve said my peace about that, I can get off my soapbox and get on with commentary. After three quarters, the game was tied at 24. That was the point that Bedlam earned its name. Oklahoma and OSU combined for 40 points in the last period. The Sooners scored on their final five possessions, three FGs and a pair of 75-plus yard TD passes by Landry Jones. Not to be outdone, OSU widoout Justin Blackmon threw a touchdown to QB Brandon Weeden and Justin Gilbert took an OU kick 90 yards for a score. A poor Cowboy onside kick attempt sealed the game for Oklahoma.
With the win, the Sooners forced another three-way tie in the Big XII South. In the BCS, Oklahoma will likely be ranked highest, followed by Texas A&M, with OSU third. Unless TAMU can get within one place of OU, the Sooners will be playing for the conference title game instead of a team that beat them. Texas A&M is going to be punished in the BCS for being the only three-loss team in the tie. The Aggie loss came at the hands of Arkansas on a neutral field. The Hogs are a top-ten team and the strongest OOC opponent that any of the Big XII South contenders played this season…by a long shot. The Big XII is essentially punishing TAMU for scheduling a tough OOC opponent. Congratulations Big XII for screwing up…again.
7. Arkansas Keeps BCS Hopes Alive with Win over LSU
Ryan Mallet’s 320 yards passing and 3 touchdowns were enough to get the Razorbacks past LSU Saturday afternoon in Little Rock. The Razorbacks outplayed LSU in all aspects of the game on their way to a convincing 31-23 victory. In the last two months, Sophomore RB Knile Davis has emerged as one of the SEC’s best ball carriers. Between Davis and Sophomore QB Tyler Wilson (who has looked good in relief of Ryan Mallet), the Hogs seem to be set offensively for the next couple of seasons.
An Auburn win over South Carolina next week will likely put Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl against Ohio State while Alabama, LSU, and South Carolina end up in the Cotton, Citrus, and Outback Bowls (not sure who goes where). Should Carolina shock the world again, the Hogs and Gamecocks will likely switch places.
I’m not sure what has gotten into the LSU defense the last couple of weeks. After going the first 10 weeks without giving up more that 29 (against Florida in the Swamp), the Tigers have been torched by Ole Miss and now Arkansas for 36 and 31 points respectively. I’m going to guess that part of the problem is the ineffectiveness of the LSU offense. The defense has been spending WAY too much time on the field and is probably running out of gas as we approach the end of the season. Hopefully for LSU, the month rest will get the D back on track. If it doesn’t, the bowl season won’t be much fun for the Bayou Bengals.
8. Florida State Dominates Florida, Heading to Charlotte Thanks to Maryland’s Help
Urban Meyer’s undefeated streak over Florida State has ended with the Seminole’s 31-7 victory in Tallahassee. For the first time in nearly a decade, there is no disputing that Florida State is clearly the best team in its state…by a long shot. The win over Florida gives Jimbo Fischer a good first season from which to build. Though he will want to forget the blowout loss in Norman and consecutive losses at NC State and at home to UNC, this has arguably been the most successful season at FSU since the Orange Bowl loss to Oklahoma.
The only thing that would make this season better would be a trip to Charlotte to play for the conference championship. The loss a month ago in Raleigh took FSU’s fate out of its own hands. Instead, the ‘Noles had to rely on the same Maryland team that they beat last week. Needless to say, the Seminole faithful had one eye of the Florida game, and the other on the game in College Park, MD. The Terps came through with a 38-31 victory over NC State at Byrd Stadium. Florida State and Virginia Tech will meet in next week’s ACC Championship. The game feature two of the league’s “football powers” for the first time since these same two schools met in 2005’s inaugural game, a 27-22 Seminole victory.
9. West Virginia Wins Backyard Brawl, UConn Controls Big East
In spite of their 6-4 overall record, the Pittsburgh Panthers went into Friday’s Backyard Brawl with West Virginia in the driver’s seat for the Big East BCS bid (likely to the Fiesta Bowl). That ceased to be the case when WVU manhandled Pitt 35-10 in front of the Panthers’ home crown at Heinz Field. The Pittsburgh loss combined with Connecticut’s win over Cincinnati Friday creates a three-way tie at the top of the much-maligned Big East. Due to its wins over both Pitt and WVU, UConn controls its own destiny. Win next week in Tampa, and the Huskies will be headed to Glendale to play the Big XII champion or the Orange Bowl to play the ACC champ.
Should UConn fall, WVU goes to the desert with a home win over Rutgers. Pitt is still alive, but will need help from USF and Rutgers. For those of you keeping score at home, four-loss UConn controls its own BCS destiny while three-loss WVU and FIVE-LOSS Pitt are still alive. Meanwhile, one-loss Michigan State appears destined for the Citrus Bowl and one-loss WAC co-champs Boise State and Nevada are looking at trips to the Humanitarian and Fight Hunger Bowls respectively. There is something seriously wrong with that statement!!! Hopefully, the new-look MWC will eventually get a BCS-AQ bid and end this nonsense.
10. Notre Dame’s Post-Tulsa Rebound Continues In LA
After losing to Tulsa, many people (myself included) left Notre Dame for dead. The Irish needed to win two of three against Utah, Army, and USC. After a bye, ND responded by blowing out Utah and Army to get bowl eligible. They then took an 18-year old QB to the LA Coliseum and won a 20-16 defensive battle, reversing a near decade of dominance by USC.
I have voiced many very different opinions about Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly. I still believe that there are some serious character issues given some of his past decisions. One thing that I will never do is take away from his reputation as an offensive guru. If he can continue to bring in top-10 recruiting classes, I feel Notre Dame has found their man. Kelly can build a program.
The win also makes a big difference in terms of where the Irish will go bowling next month. A loss would have left them at 6-6 and in the Motor city or Las Vegas Bowls. With the win, the 7-5 Irish become an attractive option for the Champs Sports Bowl (due to the ND tie-in with the Big East) or the Sun Bowl (due to the lack of eligible Pac-10 teams). A Sun Bowl against old rival Miami (FL) would be an outstanding game. Catholics vs. Convicts, take two.
Top Ten (Last Week)
1. Oregon (1)
2. Auburn (2)
3. Wisconsin (5)
4. TCU (3)
5. Stanford (6)
6. Ohio State (7)
7. Michigan State (10)
8. Arkansas (NR)
9. Texas A&M (NR)
10. Nebraska (NR)
The Next Five: Missouri, LSU, Nevada, Boise State, Oklahoma
Posted on: October 17, 2010 11:26 am
My Ten thoughts on this weekend's action, followed by an updated top ten list.
1. #1 Knocked Off Again
Another week, another #1 loses on the road. Surprisingly, poor defense played a large role in Ohio State’s loss in Madison. It’s clear that John Clay’s 100-yard rushing game (the first since Joe McKnight of USC in 2008) was the key to Wisconsin’s success. Not so surprisingly, special teams also proved to be a problem. When Wisconsin ran back the opening kickoff, you knew Ohio State was in trouble. Clay extended the lead to 21-0 with two dominating TD runs before a field goal finally put Ohio State on the board. A big interception and questionable personal foul put the Buckeyes in a position to bring the game close, but poor offensive execution left OSU with a long FG attempt that went wide left. Terrelle Pryor led a furious comeback in the second half, reducing the deficit to a field goal early in the 4th quarter. However, 10 consecutive Badger points and a late Pryor interception sealed Ohio State’s fate.
2. Shootout in the SEC
What happened to the “great SEC defenses” people have been talking about all these years? All I saw were 108 total points in the SEC game of the week. All kidding aside, I said last week that if Auburn were to beat Arkansas, they would see a significant rise in my rankings. True to my word, the Tigers have moved up. However, I still have my reservations. Up until the middle of the 4th Quarter, the Hogs were threatening to pull the upset. After seeing the way their defense performed against the Arkansas backup quarterback I’m a little nervous about putting them in the top 3. There are still 3 very losable games left on their schedule (next week against LSU, the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa, and a potential SEC title game in Atlanta). If Auburn wins out (LSU too), they should find themselves in Glandale. Cameron Newton cemented his place as Heisman frontrunner. I will be interested to see how he plays next week against the conference’s best defense, his first real test.
3. Texas Defense Comes up Big
Leave it to Will Muschamp and the Texas defense to draw up the scheme that shuts down Taylor Martinez and the potent Nebraska offense. Much like South Carolina last week, I think the bye played a large role in the success of the Longhorn defense. Much like Michigan, Nebraska doesn’t have enough pieces around their young star quarterback to compete when he has a tough day. Hats off to the UT offense as well, they didn’t move the ball much, but they moved it enough (especially on the ground) to win the game. A question worth asking is which Texas performance is the truest representation of this team’s quality, getting manhandled at home by UCLA or the one that got a big win in Lincoln? As is typical, the truth likely lies somewhere in between.
4. What About the Rest of the Big XII
Lost in the commotion of Nebraska and Oklahoma’s undefeated runs and the struggles of Texas, there are several 2nd tier Big XII teams that have been quietly putting together solid years. Both Oklahoma State and Missouri moved to 6-0 this afternoon with wins in the Lone Star State (OSU at Texas Tech and Mizzou at A&M). Both teams will face their first big tests next week though, as the Cowboys welcome an angry Nebraska team to Stillwater and the Tigers welcome an Oklahoma team that is still very much in the National Title race to Columbia. Additionally, Bill Snyder’s Kansas State Wildcats are 5-1 after a lopsided win over Kansas Thursday evening and had a great win to open their season against UCLA. Lastly, Robert Griffin has the Baylor Bears one win away from their first Bowl game in 14 years after defeating Colorado in Boulder.
5. Illinois Better than Expected, Sparty has Big Ten’s Best D
In the first half of the game in East Lansing, Illinois put the fear of God in Michigan State, leading 6-3 at the half. In the second half, Kirk Cousins, the 2 headed monster at RB, and the rest of the Spartan offense looked much better as they ran away with the game 26-6. After the way the Ohio State and Iowa defenses looked in their games against Wisconsin and Michigan respectively, it is a safe bet to say that Sparty has the Big Ten’s best defense. MSU holds its BCS destiny in its own hands with only their game at Iowa as a big concern.
6. Bad Defense, Trouble Through the Air Cost Michigan Again
There were points in their match up with Michigan that Iowa looked like the stereotypical Big Ten team that many people nationally accused of being “too slow,” especially on the defensive side of the ball. Michigan was able to move the ball easily in large part due to its superior athleticism. I don’t think it was a coincidence that the Michigan comeback was sparked by Tate Forcier’s entrance in to the game. Given Denard Robinson’s struggles with going through reads and throwing accuracy, coming from behind can prove to be a problem. Though I’m not advocating Forcier as the starter in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines are going to need an improved passing game if the want to win against the Big Ten’s better teams. 11 new starters on defense would help, too.
Even in a losing effort, Michigan showed the rest of the Big Ten how Iowa can be beaten. If a team can play ANY defense and takes advantage of Iowa’s less athletic secondary, they have a great shot at a win. In spite of their loss in Madison, Ohio State seems to be the Big Ten team most equipped to take down Iowa. Though I am being critical of Iowa, I do acknowledge how difficult Big Ten road wins (especially in Ann Arbor) are to come by.
7. Vandy Controls its Own Destiny is SEC East
This SEC’s eastern division is light years behind the west. Last week I said that 4 of the league’s top five resided in the west. However, the case can even be made that ALL FIVE of the SEC’s best teams (Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, AND Mississippi State) are from the western division. In inter-divisional games this season, the east has won only two games (Vanderbilt won at Ole Miss and South Carolina beat Alabama in Columbia). Following South Carolina’s loss in Lexington, it is likely that a 5-3 (possibly even 4-4) team will go to Atlanta. The Gators lost their third straight (all in Conference) for the first time since 1988. Right now, 2-loss Vanderbilt (who lost to UConn) is tied for first and controls its own BCS destiny! Even the 3-loss teams Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee
8. No Dominant ACC Team
Since expanding to 12 teams, parity has been the only thing that can be counted on in the ACC. Every time a team appears ready to separate themselves from the pack, they put in a performance that gives people cause to pause. So far this season, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, and Georgia Tech have all fallen into this trap. Florida State nearly became the most recent victim at home against Boston College. In what was clearly a letdown game after the big win in South Beach, the ‘Noles found themselves trailing early in the 4th quarter. I still stand by my statement that FSU is the best team in Florida this year, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a trap waiting for them down the road.
9. Late Night Games Hurt Boise State
Boise State’s national title bid took a minor blow this week, as both Oregon State and Nevada lost on the road. Oregon State’s 35-34 double overtime loss at Washington is another downturn in what has been a Jekyll and Hyde season for the Beavers, losing on the road to top ten Boise State and TCU while winning at then top ten Arizona. In what most thought would be the highest scoring game of the weekend, Hawaii defeated Nevada at home by a modest score of 27-21. This represents Nevada’s 6th consecutive road loss in the Central Pacific, a place they haven’t won since 1948. To put that in perspective, the last time the Wolf Pack won in Honolulu was the same year that the Cleveland Indians won the World Series.
Both losses further weaken Boise State’s already questionable strength of schedule, as Nevada and Oregon State were their only two opponents ranked in the top 25. These losses likely will knock both teams out of the polls, possibly for good. The BSU/Nevada game next month in Reno goes from a top 15 match up and possible College Gameday site, to nothing more than a trap game against a team with a solid offense. The Beavers have three more potential losses on their schedule, playing USC at home, traveling to Stanford, and hosting Oregon in succession to end their season.
10. Trojans Win Big, 2 Weeks Until Showdown With Ducks
USC had their best performance of the season in their last game before welcoming the Oregon Ducks to town in two weeks. The 48-14 beat down of the California Golden Bears should be seen as a statement made directly to the Ducks. The Trojans are one of the few Pac-10 teams that have the defensive talent to shut down the high-powered Oregon offense. Like South Carolina last weekend and Texas yesterday, having two weeks to prepare is going to give Monte Kiffin the best chance of any defensive coordinator this season. Last week, I stated that Mike Stoops was the best defensive mind in the Pac-10, forgetting that Monte moved with his son from Tennessee to LA. Right now, they are 1 and 1A in the conference. I think it’s safe to say that whoever shuts down Oregon first is the best.
My Top Ten (previous ranking)
1. Oklahoma (1)
2. Oregon (3)
3. Auburn (7)
4. Boise State (4)
5. TCU (6)
6. LSU (8)
7. Alabama (9)
8. Utah (10)
9. Michigan State (NR)
10. Stanford (NR)
The Next Five: Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State (2), Florida State, Nebraska (5)
Tags: Arkansas, Auburn, Baylor, Boise State, Boston College, Florida, Florida State, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas State, Kentucky, Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Oregon State, South Carolina, Texas, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington, Wisconsin
Posted on: October 11, 2010 4:07 pm
Edited on: October 12, 2010 9:10 am
10 thoughts from this weekend’s action, followed by my top 10 list:
1. 2 weeks ago, Arkansas showed the world the blueprint for beating Alabama. 4 quarters of good quarterback play combined with a solid defensive effort was what was needed to take down the nation’s best team. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, the team played well through the first 3 quarters before falling apart in the fourth. Alabama was proven to be beatable, the question became “what team would be able to pull the upset?” It ended up being South Carolina with Garcia and the Gamecock defense stepping up after their bye week and a loss @Auburn.
2. Denard Robinson is a great athlete. By his senior year, Michigan's offense will be one of the nation's best and he'll have a legit case for the Heisman. Right now, he has to improve his throwing accuracy and get through his reads faster. Rich Rodriguez needs to put better offensive pieces around him and completely overhaul the Wolverine D. Until then, teams with solid passing games and competent defenses will have little trouble winning against Michigan. Iowa, Ohio State, and Wisconsin are all left on the Wolverine schedule and fit the description. Michigan will lose 2-3 more games this regular season. On the other side of the coin, Michigan State is for real. Sparty should be undefeated heading to Iowa City in two weeks. A win there, and MSU should earn at least a share of the Big Ten title and a trip to Pasadena.
3. If Terrelle Pryor plays at the top of his game (ie, Saturday vs. Indiana, vs. Miami (FL), and in the Rose Bowl), Ohio State is nearly unbeatable. The Buckeye defense is one of the best in the country, and Pryor is the necessary component for OSU’s offensive success. If Pryor is playing poorly or (God forbid) gets injured, the Buckeye offense goes from solid to below average and the team goes from national title contender to 2-4 loss team out of the BCS.
4. Speaking of Ohio State, their hard-fought victory in their Big Ten opener against Illinois doesn’t look as bad after the beating the Illini laid on Penn State in Happy Valley. If Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa are the top Big Ten teams, Illinois fits solidly in the 2nd tier with Michigan, Northwestern and Indiana. Conversely, Penn State is looking like the 9th best team in the conference and will be fighting with Purdue to try and get bowl eligible.
5. Auburn needs a statement win. Right now, the Tigers are the highest ranked SEC team according to the AP. However, I’m still waiting for them to really put on an impressive performance. They have struggled in both of their road games against clearly inferior opponents (Mississippi State and Kentucky). It took overtime to beat Clemson on the Plains. Auburn needed Stephen Garcia and South Carolina to collapse in the 4th quarter to keep their undefeated season alive. A win next week over Arkansas would go a long way for Auburn. However, I still think Arkansas should come away with the W.
6. Les Miles must have made a deal with the devil. How else can you explain these 4th quarter comebacks, lucky fake FGs, and wins despite horrible clock management? LSU has a national championship caliber defense. If either Jarrett Lee or Jordan Jefferson can figure out how to lead the offense, LSU can make a legit run at the SEC title and a record 3rd BCS championship. If no, the Tigers are doomed to lose at least twice as their schedule will only get tougher from here on.
7. The SEC East isn’t very good. Other than South Carolina, the top 5 SEC teams all come from the West. The Gamecocks are in the drivers seat to win their division. The Old Ball Coach has no excuses for his team failing to reach Atlanta this year, let’s take a look at the competition. Florida is one of the best programs in the country, but is in the middle of a down year. This is not a knock on the Gators, this usually happens when you lose an all world QB like Tim Tebow. Georgia lost their first 3 SEC games and then got beaten by Colorado. Tennessee has been blown out twice, nearly lost to UAB, and blew a 4th quarter lead despite LSU’s best effort to give them the game. Kentucky couldn’t seal the deal against Auburn and got blown out in Gainesville. Vandy is Vandy.
8. Oklahoma’s blowout win over Florida State earlier this season is looking even better after the beating FSU laid on Miami (FL). Right now, the Seminoles are the best team in Florida and are the clear favorites in the ACC. They are in the weaker division and should be the favorites in all of their remaining games.
9. At some point this season, a Pac 10 team will come up with a scheme to shut down the Oregon offense. If the Ducks don’t put up at least 40 points, they are in danger of losing on any given Saturday. To say their defense is a weakness would be a massive understatement. Though they lost this weekend, I think Mike Stoops and his Arizona Wildcats have the best shot at the end of November. Arizona is the best defensive team in the conference and should still have a chance at getting to the Rose Bowl. Other teams that have a shot are USC at home in 2 weeks and Oregon State in Corvallis the last week of the season.
10. After a convincing win in Ames, the Utah Utes have earned the right to be in the conversation for best non-AQ team with Boise State and TCU. As an outside observer I find it shocking that Utah isn’t getting any press right now. Though they are not the sexy pick, Utah has as strong of a BCS busting track record as either of the other teams. The beaten 2 AQ school already and have a chance to knock off a third when they go to South Bend next month. A win over TCU in Salt Lake City will change the way both teams are viewed. The Horned Frogs will be the favorite (possibly a heavy favorite), but given Utah’s recent track record at home (only 5 losses in 5+ seasons under Kyle Whittingham, nonce since September ’07) I certainly wouldn’t bet any money against them.
My Top 10:
2. Ohio State
4. Boise State
Tags: Alabama, Auburn, Boise State, Broncos, Buckeyes, Crimson Tide, Ducks, Fighting Illini, Florida State, Gamecocks, Horned Frogs, Illini, Illinois, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Nittany Lions, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, SEC, SEC East, Seminoles, Sooners, South Carolina, Spartans, TCU, Tigers, Utah, Utes, Wolverines